War

The opening chapter recounts the events of January 6, 2021, as rioters stormed the US Capitol, fueled by Donald Trump’s refusal to concede the 2020 presidential election. Amid escalating violence and chants to “hang Mike Pence,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy made frantic calls to Trump, pleading for a response to quell the chaos. Trump’s delayed reaction, including a tepid tweet 187 minutes later, highlights his disconnect from the gravity of the attack. Despite McCarthy’s insistence that Trump call Joe Biden to acknowledge his successor, Trump resisted, foreshadowing his eventual legacy conflict within the Republican Party and American politics.

In April 2021, Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, observed an alarming military buildup by Russia on Ukraine’s border that reminded him of “Chekhov’s gun,” an omen that seemed to predict conflict. Biden and Sullivan, concerned with maintaining stability, prepared for a possible summit with Vladimir Putin to diffuse tensions, although Biden’s earlier label of Putin as a “killer” had already strained relations. Throughout this chapter, the history of Russia’s provocative maneuvers and Biden’s insistence on defending Ukraine’s sovereignty spotlight a long-standing geopolitical conflict. The chapter ends with Biden offering Putin an open dialogue to address grievances: a diplomatic move to prevent a potential invasion of Ukraine.

Chapter 3 reports on the insights of Dr. Fiona Hill, former chief Russia expert for the National Security Council, who was dismayed by Trump’s fateful Helsinki summit with Putin. Hill, along with other experts, joined Biden in the Roosevelt Room to discuss Putin’s intentions as Russia amassed troops near Ukraine’s border. The conversation underscored Putin’s ambitions to weaken Western support for Ukraine and to exploit America’s internal divisions. Biden’s questions revealed his intent to both understand Putin and to maintain a unified stance on foreign policy despite increasing domestic polarization.

In April 2021, as protests in Russia surged for the release of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Putin’s state-of-the-nation address turned confrontational as he condemned Western nations for their perceived antagonism toward Russia. Putin invoked “red lines” as a warning against foreign interference, while Russia strategically maintained a military presence near Ukraine, signaling its readiness for future escalation despite claims of troop withdrawal. Ukrainian and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) leaders voiced skepticism, noting that Russia’s retained forces in Crimea and near the Ukrainian border indicated the likelihood of renewed aggression.

Retired Army Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, a former national security adviser and a close adviser to Vice President Mike Pence, reflected on the Trump administration’s perception of Ukraine as a relatively low-priority issue. Kellogg explained that Trump’s focus had been on nations like Iran, North Korea, and China rather than Ukraine. He shared a unique anecdote about Trump’s private gift to Putin of COVID-19 testing machines, noting the Russian leader’s wariness regarding the virus. Kellogg also described Trump as unpredictable, suggesting that both the US and Russia were unsure of each other’s intentions regarding Ukraine.

In June 2021, President Biden met with President Putin at the historic Villa La Grange in Geneva. Their highly scripted meeting contrasted with Trump’s unpredictable interactions. The event focused on cybersecurity following recent Russian-linked cyberattacks and probed Russia’s militarization near Ukraine. Although Ukraine was only briefly discussed, the summit concluded with separate press conferences, where Putin deflected US concerns while attempting to portray Russia as a reasonable partner. Biden sensed limited progress, perceiving Putin’s distrust and pragmatic approach. Post-summit, Biden’s team felt cautiously optimistic but questioned whether Putin’s military ambitions had truly been deterred.

Six months into Biden’s presidency, Donald Trump continued to claim that the 2020 election was “stolen,” despite the lack of credible evidence and multiple recounts and audits upholding Biden’s win. Trump’s influence remained potent, with many Republicans believing him to be the rightful president. While Senator Lindsey Graham advocated for Republicans to embrace Trump’s appeal without endorsing conspiracy theories, Trump insisted on a personal mission to regain power, even pushing representatives like Mo Brooks to demand his reinstatement. This chapter illustrates Trump’s fixation on his “stolen election” narrative, highlighting its ongoing impact on Republican strategies and the American political landscape.

In July 2021, Putin published an inflammatory essay arguing that Ukraine was historically part of Russia and effectively denying its legitimacy as an independent state. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan viewed this manifesto as a disturbing expression of Putin’s deeply ingrained imperialist beliefs, which were further cultivated during the isolation of the COVID-19 pandemic. With an inner circle of nationalist allies and advisors, Putin’s fixation on Ukraine grew intense, leading some US officials to question whether his essay represented mere rhetoric or a more ominous precursor to future actions. CIA Director Bill Burns and other officials recognized that Putin’s essay aligned with his historical narratives and ambitions, underscoring his steadfast commitment to reclaiming what he perceives to be Russian territory.

In the summer of 2021, President Biden’s decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan came under immense scrutiny as the Taliban swiftly regained control. Biden, who viewed the Afghanistan mission as an example of prolonged “mission creep,” stood by his choice, prioritizing the prevention of future US entanglements. However, the withdrawal’s chaotic execution led to widespread criticism from the public and from political figures across the spectrum. The collapse of the Afghan government and the tragic events at Kabul Airport, including the deaths of US servicemembers and Afghan civilians, underscored the high costs of ending the “forever war.” National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and other top officials faced intense backlash, with critics questioning the administration’s preparedness and decision-making throughout the process.

On Ukraine’s 30th Independence Day, President Zelensky held a grand military parade in Kyiv, showcasing Ukraine’s advancing military capabilities with modernized tanks, missiles, and newly acquired Bayraktar TB2 drones. Zelensky’s speech passionately emphasized Ukraine’s independence and hinted at a future with NATO, representing a direct challenge to Russia. British Navy Admiral Tim Woods, who had been supporting Ukraine’s military transition to NATO standards, observed this event as a clear message to Putin. Woods and his family, who were living in Kyiv and were familiar with Russian intimidation tactics, noted signs of a growing Russian military presence near Ukraine’s borders, suggesting evidence of Putin’s intensified focus on Ukraine amid the nation’s strengthened alliance with the West.