The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 1996

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Summary

Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Introduction-Part 1, Chapter 5

Part 2, Chapters 6-9

Parts 2-3, Chapters 10-12

Key Figures

Themes

Index of Terms

Important Quotes

Essay Topics

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Discussion Questions

Themes

Theories of Time and Their Effects

Time is the overarching theme in The Fourth Turning. The concept of time as it relates to history and human life is the central tenet of Strauss and Howe’s theories concerning turnings, generations, and archetypes. Concrete spans of time are also critical to understanding these ideas. For example, each of the four turnings within a saeculum lasts roughly 20 years before the mood of the nation changes drastically and a new turning emerges. Roughly 20 years is also the time period between generations. Similarly, the span of each of the four life phases (childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood) is also roughly 20 years. Rather than being coincidental, these similar spans of time exist because they are all interconnected and affect one another.

In their introductory chapter, Strauss and Howe recognize time as a theme to their work. They explain that “[O]ver the millennia, man has developed three ways of thinking about time: chaotic, cyclical, and linear. The first was the dominant view of primitive man, the second of ancient and traditional civilizations, and the third of the modern West, especially America” (8). Chaotic time conceives of events as random, resulting in history having no path forward or backward and society having no connective tissue. Cyclical time, according to the authors, “conquered chaos by repetition, by the parent or hunter or farmer performing the right deed at the right moment in the perpetual cycle” (8). Cyclical time became dominant when humans began to link natural cycles to human cycles. The result, according to Strauss and Howe, was a new moral dimension to human existence; once we understand history along some sort of timeline, it becomes possible to judge events—and the way we interact with them—in relation to one another. Linear time—the belief in time as a story with an absolute beginning and an absolute end—came along centuries later. With its adoption, history became a way to measure progress.

Strauss and Howe argue that “[T]he great achievement of linear time ha[s] been to endow mankind with a purposeful confidence in its own self-improvement” (11). The great weakness of linear time, however, is that “[I]t obliterates time’s recurrence and thus cuts people off from the eternal—whether in nature, in each other, or in ourselves” (11). In other words, linear time poses some of the same problems as chaotic time. Although linear time allows for the comparison of the present with the past, it presupposes that whatever happened in the past is over for good once its effects cease to be felt, disconnecting us from any sense of broader pattern or order. The adoption of linear time as the dominant view has led directly to a devaluation of history throughout our society. The authors suggest that “[W]e need to realize that without some notion of historical recurrence, no one can meaningfully discuss the past at all” (13). For this reason, they implore us to overcome linearism and see time and history as cyclical. They argue that this can be done while still retaining our “hopeful intuition of progress” and our “skeptical awareness of randomness” (13).

Seasonality in Human Life and History

A strong secondary theme in The Fourth Turning is that of seasonality, which is similar to the concept of time in many ways. Both are critical to understanding Strauss and Howe’s theories concerning turnings, generations, and archetypes. The first and most obvious example of this is the seasonality of life. In Chapter 3, the authors explain that “[T]o several North American native societies, life was experienced as four ‘hills’ (childhood, youth, maturity, old age), each corresponding to a wind and a season and each possessing its own challenge, climax, and resolution” (53). Modern societies have also adopted this line of thinking, as evidenced by frequently used terms such as the “spring of childhood,” the “summer of youth,” the “harvest of midlife,” and the “winter of old age.”

The second obvious example comes from the authors’ own theory concerning the saeculum and turnings. The first turning high era naturally echoes springtime, as it arrives following the coldness and darkness of the fourth turning. The second turning awakening era, a passionate time of spiritual upheaval, corresponds to summer and its abundance. The third turning unraveling era resembles fall, as individualism is strong and people tend to internalize as if they were harvesting in preparation for winter. The fourth turning crisis era mirrors winter, as the authors explain in Chapter 10: “[O]f all the four turnings, none spends its energy more completely than a crisis, and none has its end more welcomed. In nature, the frigid darkness serves a vital purpose, but only to enable what follows” (299).

Throughout their work, Strauss and Howe offer the analogous comparison of turnings to the seasonal solstices and equinoxes. In Chapter 4, they argue,

[L]ike the four seasons of nature, the four turnings of history are equally necessary and equally important. Awakenings and crises are the saecular solstices, summer and winter, each a solution to a challenge posed by the other. Highs and unravelings are the saecular equinoxes, spring and autumn, each coursing a path directionally opposed to the other (100).

With this analogy, each of the four turnings takes on characteristics similar to their seasonal solstice or equinox counterpart. High eras warm and lighten following a crisis, just as the spring equinox does following winter. Awakening eras trigger an outburst of love resulting from the security of the high, just as summer brings an outburst of growth following the thaw of spring. Unraveling eras bring uncertainty, fragmentation, and strife following the disorder of the awakening, just as autumn brings darkness and chill following the warmth of summer. Crisis eras bring danger and anxiety resulting from the insecurity of the unraveling, just as winter brings cold following the chill of autumn.

Strauss and Howe’s use of seasonality as an extended metaphor relates directly to their stated purpose in writing The Fourth Turning. To persuade readers of the conceptual importance of cyclical time, the authors frame their arguments in the form of cyclical time we are probably most familiar with (other than perhaps the day-night cycle).

The Looming Possibility of Doom

In closing Part 1 of the book, Strauss and Howe explain that the remaining chapters will be part history and part prophecy. They begin Part 2 of the book with a straightforward analysis of the postwar American High and the Consciousness Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s. From there, they look to the future to discuss the upcoming fourth turning, which they predict will begin midway through the first decade of the 21st century and end roughly 20 years later. They also provide extensive suggestions as to what steps people need to take in order to survive the upcoming fourth turning. Through this prophetic vision of the future, doom emerges as another theme running throughout the book’s final three chapters.

In Chapter 10, the authors list some plausible scenarios that could serve as the catalyst for the fourth turning crisis. The ominous list includes a financial crisis so severe that a state lays claim to its residents’ federal tax monies, leading to similar tax rebellions in other states; a global terrorist attack leading to a declaration of war and tyrannical domestic safety precautions; a federal budget stalemate so deadlocked that the government shuts down and Wall Street plummets; a global pandemic leading to mandatory quarantine measures and forced relocations; and war with a foreign power so strong that Congress reinstates conscription. The authors admit that it is highly unlikely that any of these scenarios unfolds precisely as described, but they caution that it is likely that “[T]he catalyst will unfold according to a basic crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies” (273).

In fact, the first few decades of the 21st century have borne out several of these predictions: 9/11 triggered wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as controversial domestic policies like the Patriot Act; the US government shut down in 2013 and at both the beginning and end of 2018; and Covid-19 resulted in unprecedented global lockdowns. This perhaps raises the question of which, if any, of these events is the “catalyst” of the fourth turning, and the related question of whether Strauss and Howe’s model holds true in the new millennium; arguably, factors like increased globalization have made crises more widespread and more cascading than they were in the past. If anything, this makes The Fourth Turning’s warnings about the imminent possibility of collapse even more ominous. On the other hand, it isn’t uncommon for people living through the eras Strauss and Howe label fourth turnings to feel that they are living in a time of unprecedented chaos and collapse; millenarian movements were widespread in late 17th-century England, for example. This suggests that it may only be possible to discern the true shape and scope of a crisis era at a remove.