The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics

There are three things that a challenger must do to come to power in autocracies. The first is to remove the current leader. There are three ways to remove the current leader. The first and easiest is that the leader dies. The second is that the challenger can convince the current leader’s essentials to defect. Finally, outside forces, such as a revolution or military defeat by a foreign power, can overwhelm the current political system.

Once the old leader is gone, the challenger needs to seize the treasury and other instruments of power as quickly as possible. There are often multiple challengers vying for power, especially in small-coalition systems. Challengers need to show the individuals backing their power grab that they can buy their loyalty. The only way for challengers to do this is to immediately seize control of the state’s cash flow. Bueno de Mesquita and Smith note that “waiting is risky business. There is no prize for coming in second” (24).

Finally, the challenger needs to form a coalition of supporters that will sustain him as the new leader. Simply put, the challenger needs to ensure they have enough money to buy the supporters’ loyalty. This makes it more difficult for someone to overthrow them.

There are several circumstances that open the door to a new leader in autocracies (or political systems with few essentials). The first is mortality. Dead leaders are not able to deliver rewards to their supporters. Dying leaders also make it easier for challengers. Once essential backers know their leader is dying, they will start looking for a new leader to ensure that the flow of rewards continues into their pockets. For this reason, many leaders, especially those in autocracies, keep terminal illnesses a secret.

One way a dying leader might be able to stave off challenges is to designate an heir (also known as inheritance). Since the essence of good government is buying loyalty, heirs are still able to reward supporters. The heirs already know where the money is and whom they need to continue paying off. Thus, supporters are already in place with inheritance. For sick leaders, designating a new heir can help them maintain power until they die. Other opportunities that pave the way for new leaders include current leaders who fail to do the right thing, especially in the eyes of their supporters; financial crises; supporters of the current leader finding out that they are going to be replaced; and coalition expansions.

Leader transitions in democracies follow the same mechanisms as those in autocracies, although they are less violent. Bueno de Mesquita and Smith state, “Just as in an autocracy, a democratic challenger needs to ensure the deposition of the incumbent [current political leader], seize command of the instruments of the state, and sufficiently reward a coalition of supporters so that they back her as the new democratic incumbent” (41).

In a democracy, challengers are more easily able to detach supporters from the current coalition because of the reliance on public goods in this political system. Since public goods benefit everyone, those in the coalition are not much different than those outside the coalition. Loyalty is easy to dilute in this case. Challengers who come up with more popular public policies than the current government will also win over more supporters. There is also a lack of urgency in democratic transitions. The reason is that there is often time between election result announcements and candidates coming to power. This time window allows incoming presidents, at least in the United States, to prepare, nominate their cabinet, and appoint people into government positions.

One of the main differences between coming to power in a democracy and in a dictatorship is the role of good or popular policy ideas. Democrats use policy ideas to buy loyalty. Unfortunately, policy ideas do not buy the same kind of loyalty as private rewards do. The reason is that everyone partakes in the policy benefit whether they support the current democratic leader or not. Past deeds do not buy loyalty. If a challenger comes along and has a more appealing policy idea, people are easily able to switch their support to the challenger. Winston Churchill’s election loss at the end of World War II provides a particularly infamous example. Churchill is one of Britain’s greatest politicians. His rhetoric and policy ideas helped defeat Hitler’s Nazi Germany during World War II. Britons admired and praised Churchill at the end of the war. Yet, they still selected another candidate over Churchill. In the end, they preferred the challenger’s policies to Churchill’s policies.

While public policies help leaders build and maintain supporters, there are still private rewards in democratic politics. For example, dynastic rule is still common. The authors note that one-quarter of American presidents were close relatives.