The Age of Magical Overthinking: Notes on Modern Irrationality

Montell writes about McArthur Wheeler, who robbed a bank after putting lemon juice on his face because he thought that since it could be used as invisible ink, it would obscure his identity. Montell enjoys such “true con” stories and suggests that such events arise from the overconfidence bias, which is the tendency to overestimate one’s knowledge or abilities or the accuracy of one’s judgments.

Montell examines how American culture “celebrates” overconfidence, with maxims such as “fake it ’til you make it.” Inspired by Wheeler, David Dunning and one of his graduate students coined the term “the Dunning-Kruger effect,” which is the tendency for those with the least knowledge or experience to consistently overvalue their understanding. Experts, too, overestimate themselves, but to a lesser degree.

Overconfidence bias has three key traits: “[P]eople overvalue their actual skills, express excessive certainty in their evaluations, and overcredit themselves with positive outcomes” (133). Montell’s research forced her into introspection as she faced the idea that most everyone, unless they are experiencing certain mental health conditions like post-traumatic stress disorder, emits overconfidence. Studies suggest that overconfidence has evolutionary benefits, helping people appear self-assured and improving their chances of survival. One modern example of overconfidence bias is the large percentage—98%—of middle and high schoolers who want to become “internet famous.” While it can be beneficial at times, overconfidence bias can have severe consequences—“stock market nosedives, medical misdiagnoses, and technological failures” (137). The bias is also commonly found in criminal activity.

Imposter syndrome is a near opposite to overconfidence; it is the persistent feeling of inadequacy or self-doubt despite evident success or competence, and it is marked by negativity, minimizing one’s successes, and “self-mistrust.” Like overconfidence, almost everyone experiences imposter syndrome; however, studies suggest that it is a somewhat recent social phenomenon rather than an evolutionary trait.

Overconfidence is often apparent in individuals’ moral self-judgment, with studies showing that women are often more morally overconfident than men, especially among white women. Social media is rife with individuals drawing attention to others’ social and moral faux pas, resulting in virtue signaling, the act of publicly expressing moral or ethical values primarily to gain social approval rather than out of genuine conviction. Access to information also contributes to overconfidence bias, as people can bolster their confidence by easily finding supportive information.

Montell examines humility, which she used to equate with self-deprecation but now understands relates to thinking about oneself—whether positively or negatively—less often. Humility, she suggests, can help one overcome both overconfidence bias and imposter syndrome.

While writing an article on how cult-like the wedding industry is, Montell learned that women started carrying bouquets to mask their odor since they bathed less often. When she posted this information, it was countered by an expert, Dr. Eleanor Janega, who said that this is a myth—medieval people had good hygiene and carried flowers for their aesthetic and symbolic value. Such misconceptions arise because of the illusory truth effect, which is a phenomenon where something seems factual because it has been repeatedly heard.

Although sometimes benign, the illusory truth effect can be damaging, such as the perpetuated idea that those on welfare are lazy, and repetition can make it harder for people to unlearn incorrect information. Studies have shown that the illusory truth effect is “potent,” to the point where subjects still fall for the bias when explicitly warned against it.

Montell suggests that the illusory truth effect’s strength arose before written language, when information was passed orally. Incorrect “legends” also survive because they are interesting and sometimes difficult to disprove. Montell criticizes public figures for using the effect to promote incorrect or one-sided information.

Quoting several proverbs, like “The early bird catches the worm” and “Better late than never,” Montell demonstrates how the illusory truth effect contributes to irrational thinking. Such digestible sayings are easier to believe, particularly when rhyme is incorporated, resulting in the rhyme-as-reason effect, also called the “Keats heuristic” after poet John Keats. Information is even more appealing when it simultaneously evokes laughter and disgust.

Montell hypothesizes that the illusory truth effect also occurs internally when people, including herself, narrativize their lives. She cites My Stroke of Insight by Jill Bolte Taylor; Taylor had a stroke and lost the ability to articulate her thoughts, eliminating the illusory truth effect, and she called the experience euphoric.

Montell questions how to merge beauty and truth, arguing that her favorite teachers have been those who can combine both principles. She also discusses the power of language, demonstrated through mythology references in science, such as the planetary “Goldilocks Zone.”