How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them

Over the last several years, the increasing factionalism in the US has led to a proliferation of books on whether the US is falling apart, the rise of populism in the country, and the possibility of a second civil war. As a political scientist, Walter has studied civil wars, domestic terrorism, and violent extremism since 1990. Walter has interviewed numerous individuals involved in recent civil wars in the West Bank, Colombia, and Northern Ireland. She includes some of these interviews and experiences in this book. Walter also sits on several task forces, including the Political Instability Task Force (PITF). Academics and data analysts comprise PITF. This task force was the first to use data on civil wars from around the world to create models that predict where instability might occur.

The Introduction also serves as an important overview for the perspective of the book as a whole. Until recently, scholars and the public assumed that each civil war was unique. Research by Walter and her colleagues has dispelled this notion by documenting that there are similar patterns and risk factors that prelude modern civil wars. Today’s civil wars are drastically different from pre-21st-century civil wars. Guerilla soldiers and militias and deep ethnic and cultural tensions have replaced battlefields, large armies, and conventional war tactics.

Walter uses Fox’s attempted kidnapping and assassination of Governor Whitmer as one example. Michigan, like many other states in the US, is deeply divided along racial and geographic lines. Black Americans primarily live in the state’s two largest cities, whereas white Americans primarily reside in rural areas. Rural areas face steep economic decline, which has led to the rise of anger, anti-government culture, and ethnic radicalization in rural Michigan. The number of militias in the state has also increased. Militias and guerilla soldiers who target civilians and public infrastructure represent the hallmarks of modern civil wars. For this reason, Walter is unsurprised “that one of the first attempts to instigate a civil war happened here [Michigan]” (xvii).

Walter begins to explore a key theme in this chapter: American Democracy and Its Vulnerabilities. Many Americans believe that a second civil war is simply impossible. As Walter notes, the reasons for this viewpoint are as follows:

They assume our democracy is too resilient, too robust to devolve into conflict. Or they assume that our country is too wealthy and advanced to turn on itself. Or they assume that any rebellion would quickly be stamped out by our powerful government, giving the rebels no chance (xviii).

In response, Walter shows how the patterns and risk factors emblematic of modern civils wars are also occurring in the US. Data from other countries indicate that while militias are organizing in rural communities and ethnic and cultural tensions are increasing, many people continue on with their daily lives until suddenly war erupts. Civil wars seem sneaky, but only because most people do not recognize their warning signs. Walter hopes that by helping readers better understand how civil wars start, they can recognize the signs and prevent a second civil war from beginning in the US.