How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them

Content Warning: The source text depicts acts of violence and other crimes associated with civil wars.

The title of this chapter, “When Hope Dies,” reveals its primary focus: loss of hope by a group, particularly after failed protests and elections, that can trigger civil wars. Walter uses two case studies to support her assertion.

First, she focuses on the Irish Catholics in Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland has been the homeland of Irish Catholics for centuries. Thus, they are considered a sons of the soil group to this region. Since the 12th century, however, various groups conquered and colonized their land, making Irish Catholics used to loss. Conditions greatly worsened for Irish Catholics under British rule. Walter underscores that the most painful loss for Irish Catholics occurred in 1922, when the British government did not grant them independence alongside the rest of Ireland.

To make matters worse, the British government also revised Northern Ireland’s borders so that Protestants, who identified mostly as British, made up the majority of the region’s population. Protestants now controlled all aspects of daily life for Irish Catholics and enacted laws, supported by the British government, that denied Irish Catholics “the best jobs, the best land, and the best homes” (79). These policy changes resulted in Irish Catholics having no power or status in their homeland.

Despite this loss of power, the Irish Catholics resisted violence for several decades. The situation changed, however, when the British government sent soldiers to quell a riot in 1969 started by Protestants. Initially, the Irish Catholics believed the British soldiers would protect them from the Protestant mobs. Instead, the British soldiers supported the Protestants and brutally attacked Irish Catholics, injuring thousands and killing several. This event led both groups to become increasingly paranoid about the other’s intentions.

Violence slowly escalated, culminating in the event known as Bloody Sunday, or the Bogside Massacre, when British police shot 26 unarmed Irish Catholics during a protest march on January 30, 1972. This event made Irish Catholics lose hope that they would be able to achieve a prosperous and equitable future under British reign, which kicked off a civil war between Irish Catholics and Protestants. This civil war is known as “The Troubles” and lasted approximately 30 years.

Second, Walter turns to the civil war in Syria, which remains ongoing. Between 2006 and 2010, Syrians faced a terrible drought. The UN estimates that during this period, 75% of the country’s farms failed and 85% of the livestock died. President Bashar al-Assad, the authoritarian ruler, had long favored his own Alawite tribe, a minority group in the country. This drought put a spotlight on already existing tension between the Sunni majority, who primarily resided in the countryside, and the Alawite elite, who lived in urban areas. In response to the drought, Sunnis moved from the countryside to urban areas in search of economic opportunities. Assad’s government did little to help them, continuing instead to favor the Alawites. Initially, the Sunnis did not protest against this mistreatment given Assad’s tendency to brutally suppress dissent.

However, the Arab Spring gave them hope. Syrians saw other people who lived under authoritarian governments in the Middle East overthrow their governments and start to implement pro-democratic reforms (although most of these changes did not last). Thus, Syrians began to peacefully protest against Assad’s regime in 2011. Assad tried to brutally repress the protests. Soldiers and police attacked and killed unarmed protestors. Assad even made a televised address where he offered no concessions and said he was ready for war. As a result, Sunnis lost hope that the protests would lead to reform. In turn, this led them to the formation of different militia groups, which started the Syrian civil war.

In both case studies, the national government had ample opportunity to yield to protestors to prevent violence, yet the British and Syrian governments chose not to. This situation is seen in civil wars around the world. Walter suggests there are several reasons why governments do not avoid war. The first is that they understand their survival is at stake. Assad knew that yielding to protestors would result in both his and his Alawite tribe’s loss of power. The second is that leaders believe conflict is the only way to keep the country united, especially when there are multiple separatist groups. The third is that leaders are beholden to certain constituencies, such as their voting base, the ruling elite, or the military, who might reject compromise.