How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them

Walter’s goal is to challenge traditional accounts of civil wars, wherein democratic countries are immune from political instability. It is true that citizens who live in democracies have greater civic rights and tend to be wealthier, healthier, and more educated than those who live in autocracies. Democratic governments are also less likely to wage war against their own people or other democratic countries. Nevertheless, Walter underscores that “the road to democracy is a dangerous one” (10). In fact, evidence from around the world suggests that civil wars rise in tandem with democracies. The reason for this phenomenon is that countries rarely move from full autocracies to full democracies “without a rocky transition in between” (11). Countries are most vulnerable to civil war when they are partial democracies, also known as anocracies.

In Chapter 1, Walter explores another key overarching theme of the book: Patterns and Risk Factors for Civil Wars. Walter discusses this theme primarily from the standpoint of the rapid democratization of Iraq and the recent phenomenon of newer and once-safe democracies moving toward autocracies. The purpose of this theme is twofold. First, it shows that civil wars follow patterns across time and space. Second, the theme stresses that we can use these patterns and risk factors as tools to not only predict but, more importantly, also prevent future civil wars.

All the examples in Chapter 1 that either break out in or come close to civil war are anocracies. Anocracies are one of two variables that represent the best predictors of civil war. The second is factionalism, which Walter discusses in Chapter 2.

In regard to Iraq, Walter, like other researchers who study civil war and violent extremism, did not celebrate when American forces captured Saddam Hussein. In fact, she was extremely concerned about Iraq’s democratic transition since the country displayed several key risk factors associated with civil war: political rivalries, deep ethnic and religious tensions, and a group of people (Sunni Muslims) who had just lost all their power. In addition, US forces tried to institute bold and rapid reforms after removing Saddam and his political party from power.

Research documents that rapid democratization can be highly destabilizing under such fractured conditions. Walter notes that “rapid regime change—a six-point or more fluctuation in a country’s polity index score—almost always precedes instability, and civil wars are more likely to break out in the first two years after reform is attempted” (18), as was the case for Iraq. Instead of rapid democratization, Walter argues for slow reform, which “reduces uncertainty for a country’s citizens and is less threatening to incumbent elites, setting a conciliatory tone and providing them with opportunities to gracefully relinquish power” (19). Mexico represents a success story: Its democratic transition lasted approximately 20 years, which enabled the government to remain strong as they implemented democratic reforms.

Until recently, most countries that ended up embroiled in civil war followed Iraq’s path. Once again, people assume that democracies cannot backslide to autocracies. Walter refutes this notion by providing evidence that, since 2000, newer and once-safe liberal democracies have been sliding toward autocracies. In fact, 25 countries have backslid from a democracy to an anocracy, including the US, India, Brazil, Poland, Ukraine, and Hungary. Walter spends several pages discussing Ukraine, in part because the country has come the closest to civil war out of the other democracies. The expansion of the anocracy zone worries Walter and other political scientists because it “almost certainly means that the middle zone is likely to be expanded” (19), increasing the chances of civil wars around the world.

Throughout the book, Walter also focuses on the recollections of ordinary people who have lived through civil wars. These recollections show how civil wars can sneak up on people. Noor’s story illustrates how individuals living in anocracies usually do not notice the warning signs that prelude a civil war. Religious and regional tensions ramped up after US forces invaded Iraq. Prior to this invasion, Noor recounts how no one identified themselves according to religious identities. Noor tells Walter that she did not even know whether her friends were Sunni or Shia Muslim. Everyone identified as Iraqi. However, all this changed after the invasion. People began focusing on religious identities. As noted in Chapter 1, religious and ethnic differences are one sign of political instability because they tear a society’s social fabric apart. Noor and her family did not realize Iraq would erupt into civil war until it was happening.